Iran: Arab Fears
Arabs under a Persian moon
P.R. Kumaraswamy
Indian Express (New Delhi) : Monday, April 24, 2006
P.R. Kumaraswamy
Indian Express (New Delhi) : Monday, April 24, 2006
The current tension over the nuclear ambitions of Iran is causing great concern among its Arab neighbours. While they are individually too weak to express their apprehensions over a nuclear Iran, collectively they are not in a position to organise themselves effectively against such a possibility.
Excessive focus on Iran, especially its nuclear potential, runs counter to immediate Arab interests. Such a posture would put them at variance with the Arab street, which is sympathetic to Iran. In recent months, debate over Iran’s suspected nuclear ambitions has largely been presented as an American agenda against an Islamic country. Hence, publicly highlighting the dangers of a nuclear Iran would position Arab rulers as US henchmen against Tehran.
Moreover, having lived under Israel’s widely recognised nuclear potential, the Arab states could not possibly air their opposition to Iran taking a similar recourse. Given the scarce support base of many Arab regimes, such a posture would be suicidal.
Yet, the Arab regimes are not enamoured by Iran’s growing military muscle. Its enhanced missile capability is bound to cause tension and anxiety among its Arab neighbours. Its Shahab-3 missiles have a range of about 1,300 km and Iranian officials have publicly claimed they are developing a new variant of the Shahab, with an extended range of 2,000 km.
The Arabs also are not comfortable with Iran’s regional ambitions. Its growing military might comes against the background of unresolved or renewed disputes between Iran and the wider Arab world. Iran is yet to normalise relations with Egypt and the portrait of President Anwar Sadat’s assassin still hangs in a prominent street of Tehran.
Of late, the traditional Arab-Persian rivalry over the nomenclature of the Gulf has resurfaced with the custom officials in Iran reportedly refusing entry of products from Gulf countries which carry the phrase “Arabian Gulf”.
The recurring demands for retaining the “Arab character” of Iraq should be seen as a tactic to warn against Iranian “meddling” in Iraq. Saudi Arabia and Egypt have openly expressed their concerns over any Iranian role in the Iraq crisis. Earlier this month, in a development marked by unprecedented candidness, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak warned: “Definitely Iran has influence on Shiites. Shiites are 65 per cent of the Iraqis... Most of the Shiites are loyal to Iran, and not to the countries they are living in.”
The prolonged dispute over the Shatt al-Arab waterway that separates Iran and Iraq is still not resolved and the arrest of Iraqi sailors has fuelled fears of Iranian expansionism. Tehran still occupies three islands also claimed by the UAE.
Immediately after the election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, there were tensions over the publication of a cartoon in a Bahrain daily, which was seen to be offensive to the Shias. The Shias of Bahrain have often taken to the streets against the Sunni-dominated ruling dynasty. Private talk by Iranian diplomats of a “Shia crescent” — from Bahrain to Bekaa Valley in Lebanon — does not go down well with the Sunni-majority Arabs of the Middle East.
Latent Arab concerns vis-a-vis nuclear Iran came into the open during the February vote at the IAEA. Iran’s only regional ally, Syria, joined hands with other maverick states like Cuba and Venezuela and supported Tehran. The two other Arab members of the Agency, Egypt and Yemen, quietly voted with the majority that went against Iran.
The erosion of support for Iran in the international community was also a contributing factor. Even countries like Russia and China which have greater political and economic stakes in Iran would not be able to ignore their larger stakes in the Arab world, especially Saudi Arabia.
Riyadh’s recent high profile contacts with countries like India, China and Japan should also be seen in this context. While these countries offer new avenues for Saudi investment, King Abdullah is also saying Iran is not the only long-term strategic partner for Asia, especially in the energy sector.
Riyadh’s recent high profile contacts with countries like India, China and Japan should also be seen in this context. While these countries offer new avenues for Saudi investment, King Abdullah is also saying Iran is not the only long-term strategic partner for Asia, especially in the energy sector.
It was their apprehension over the ambitions of the revolutionaries in Tehran that prompted many neighbouring Arab states to support Saddam Hussein during the prolonged Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s. Domestic fervour against the US and their inherent military weaknesses inhibit the Arab countries from adopting a sufficiently forceful stand against a possible nuclear Iran.
Neither individually nor collectively are they in a position to articulate their positions. At the same, absence of strong public postures should not be seen as an Arab willingness to live under Persian hegemony, with or without nuclear weapons.
Neither individually nor collectively are they in a position to articulate their positions. At the same, absence of strong public postures should not be seen as an Arab willingness to live under Persian hegemony, with or without nuclear weapons.
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